Junebugred is golden in Smarty Jones

Horseracing Betting Lines

01/16/2012 - Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Junebugred, ridden by Joe Bravo, held on to win Monday's $100,000 Smarty Jones Stakes to begin Oaklawn Park's series for three-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby trail. The 6-1 third choice covered the mile distance in 1:38.45 on a fast track.

In the 12-horse field On Fire Baby, the lone filly to start, went off as the 3-2 favorite with Optimizer at 2-1.

Breaking from the gate first was Laurie's Rocket followed by No Spin, Jake Mo, Junebugred and On Fire Baby. Laurie's Rocket and No Spin battled on the front end up the backstretch and into the far turn.

On Fire Baby, with Joe Johnson riding, was four wide around the final turn with No Spin, Laurie's Rocket and Jake Mo to her inside. Junebugred had dropped back on the turn as 17-1 longshot Reckless Jerry came running on the outside.

At the top of the stretch Junebugred found room along the rail with Jake Mo, On Fire Baby, Laurie's Rocket and Reckless Jerry to his outside. Trained by Steve Hobby, Junebugred was able to take the lead in late stretch and hold off the late running Reckless Jerry.

Junebugred was able post a neck victory over Reckless Jerry with On Fire Baby finishing third. Holding on for fourth was Jake Mo followed by Laurie's Rocket, Optimizer, Copus, Prince Cheval, King Coral, No Spin, Fastestwhogetspaid and Hard Nosed.

Owned by Alex and Joann Lieblong, Junebugred was making just his third career start in the Smarty Jones. The win was worth $60,000 to bring the chestnut colt's earnings to $95,400.

The three-year-old made his debut last October at Monmouth Park when he finished third as the 13-10 favorite. Six weeks later he broke his maiden at Aqueduct at 8-1.

"We started him off and he showed us some talent," said Hobby about the colt. "His first time out he hadn't had any dirt in his face and he got to hopping and jumping around like a lot of first-time starters do. We went and sent him to David (trainer David Fawkes) in New York to give him a shot on the track up there."

Junebugred returned $14.80, $7.00 and $4.60. Reckless Jerry paid $12.80 and $6.20, and On Fire Baby paid $2.60 to show.

Next for three-year-olds is the $250,000 Southwest Stakes on Monday, February 20 followed by the $500,000 Rebel on March 17 and $1 million Arkansas Derby on April 14.

The Smarty Jones Stakes is named for the 2004 champion three-year-old colt who won the Arkansas Derby along with the Run for the Roses and Preakness Stakes. The stakes was won last year by eventual Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile champ Caleb's Posse.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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